America Mineiro 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
America Mineiro and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 17 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 0.83 xG and Cuiaba 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.811 / defence 1.141 | Cuiaba attack 0.709 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.102. Data: 3 America Mineiro games / 2 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 31% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 35%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Cuiaba 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 31% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG America Mineiro 0.83 / Cuiaba 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.811 / def 1.141 | Cuiaba attack 0.709 / def 1.153 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cuiaba xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Cuiaba kick off?
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
America Mineiro 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba part of?
America Mineiro vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 31% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both America Mineiro and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Cuiaba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.81x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.71x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 3/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
31%
3.18
34%
2.96
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.72
0.89
Cuiaba xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 15.9 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.89 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
2
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Cuiaba have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Cuiaba 2-2 America Mineiro.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at America Mineiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 4, as America Mineiro and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 0.83 xG and Cuiaba 0.89 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Cuiaba attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 31% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 35%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.