Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host St. Truiden at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
St. Truiden have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Zulte Waregem's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with St. Truiden winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St. Truiden have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus St. Truiden 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 55% | St. Truiden 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.78 xG and St. Truiden 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.128 / defence 0.829 | St. Truiden attack 1.360 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.371. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 34 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 44% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 34%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | St. Truiden 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
St. Truiden lead the H2H ledger, but Zulte Waregem carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 40% | St. Truiden 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 44% | Draw 23% | St. Truiden 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.78 / St. Truiden 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.128 / def 0.829 | St. Truiden attack 1.360 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.55
St. Truiden xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden part of?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 44% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 5W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.40
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.33
1.55
St. Truiden xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.55 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 11D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.65 PPG from 40 outings (20W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.40 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.52 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 20W 6D 14L in their last 40 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or St. Truiden away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.70 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 50%, St. Truiden 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zulte Waregem) and 60% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zulte Waregem's games and 60% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 60% of St. Truiden's.
Do Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.