Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Zulte Waregem to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Marien this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union St. Gilloise at 2.00 PPG versus Zulte Waregem's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union St. Gilloise: 6 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 46% versus Zulte Waregem 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 38% | Zulte Waregem 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.055 / defence 0.876 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.978 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.383. Data: 31 Union St. Gilloise games / 31 Zulte Waregem games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 4.00. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.72 / Zulte Waregem 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.055 / def 0.876 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.978 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Zulte Waregem xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 49% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 6W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.05) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.79
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.90
1.19
Zulte Waregem xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
4%
22.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.19 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 37 games, going 23W 10D 4L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.38 PPG from 37 outings (14W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 16W 2D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.14 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.49 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 62%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 23W 10D 4L in their last 37 games (2.14 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 14W 9D 14L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.78 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
From 7 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Zulte Waregem have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 39%, Zulte Waregem 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Union St. Gilloise) and 61% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 72% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 61% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 2, as Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 38%, Zulte Waregem 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.