Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host Kortrijk at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 1.60 PPG, Kortrijk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union St. Gilloise have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 6 past contests while Kortrijk have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 61% versus Kortrijk 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 61% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.50 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.927 / defence 0.792 | Kortrijk attack 0.922 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.166. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Union St. Gilloise games / 38 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 19%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Kortrijk 5.26. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Kortrijk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.50 / Kortrijk 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.927 / def 0.792 | Kortrijk attack 0.922 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kortrijk xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise 3 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 50% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Record (6 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 6W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 0.93x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.32
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.35
0.85
Kortrijk xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.85 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 25W 13D 8L from 46 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 25L across 46 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 14W 5D 3L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.87 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 25W 13D 8L in their last 46 games (1.91 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 9D 25L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Kortrijk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.14 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 68%, Kortrijk 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Union St. Gilloise) and 46% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 36% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 46% of Kortrijk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 3-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.50 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against Kortrijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 19%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 61%, Kortrijk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.