Union St. Gilloise 5-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Joseph Mariën plays host to Union St. Gilloise versus Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Mariën this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beerschot VA away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Union St. Gilloise. A 1.70 PPG lead over Beerschot VA (2.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 1W, Beerschot VA 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 48% versus Beerschot VA 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 61% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Beerschot VA 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.905 / defence 0.948 | Beerschot VA attack 0.711 / defence 1.637. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.336. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.637 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Union St. Gilloise games / 33 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 20%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Beerschot VA 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Beerschot VA 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.72 / Beerschot VA 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.905 / def 0.948 | Beerschot VA attack 0.711 / def 1.637 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Beerschot VA xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Union St. Gilloise 5 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 57% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (0.91) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.71x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.21
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.62
0.90
Beerschot VA xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
28.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.90 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 33 games, going 23W 5D 5L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 0.48 PPG from 33 outings (4W 4D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.76 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 9W 3D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.19 points per game from 16 outings (0W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.00 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 23W 5D 5L in their last 33 games (2.24 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 4W 4D 25L in their last 33 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Beerschot VA away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.88 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.19 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Beerschot VA 0-4 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 44%, Beerschot VA 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 62% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 69% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 62% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Beerschot VA 5-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Beerschot VA 0.90 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Beerschot VA attack 0.71 / defence 1.64, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 20%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 61%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.