Union St. Gilloise 2-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Eupen make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union St. Gilloise lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 54% versus AS Eupen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 59% | AS Eupen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.34 xG and AS Eupen 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.192 / defence 0.898 | AS Eupen attack 0.961 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.259. Data: 61 Union St. Gilloise games / 61 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 20% | AS Eupen 15%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | AS Eupen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | AS Eupen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 20% | AS Eupen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.34 / AS Eupen 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.192 / def 0.898 | AS Eupen attack 0.961 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.09
AS Eupen xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 65% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 2W | Draws 1 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.19x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.96x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.98
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.43
1.09
AS Eupen xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
10%
10.39
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
1%
67.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.09 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 61 games, going 39W 11D 11L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Eupen sit at 0.95 PPG from 61 outings (15W 13D 33L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 18W 5D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Eupen have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.16 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 39W 11D 11L in their last 61 games (2.10 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 15W 13D 33L in their last 61 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or AS Eupen away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.97 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, AS Eupen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2023, when AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 50%, AS Eupen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Union St. Gilloise) and 60% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AS Eupen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 53% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 60% of AS Eupen's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out AS Eupen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat AS Eupen 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.34 xG and AS Eupen 1.09 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 0.90 against AS Eupen attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 65% | Draw 20% | AS Eupen 15%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.