Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Antwerp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Antwerp 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antwerp trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 59% versus Antwerp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 60% | Antwerp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.210 / defence 0.846 | Antwerp attack 0.816 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Antwerp 5.56. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Antwerp 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.41 / Antwerp 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.210 / def 0.846 | Antwerp attack 0.816 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Antwerp xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 5 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 50% chance of winning, Antwerp a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Record (6 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 3W | Draws 2 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.21x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
50%
2.00
32%
3.15
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.18
0.77
Antwerp xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.77 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 40W 19D 11L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 28W 20D 22L from 70 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.17 PPG from 35 outings (23W 7D 5L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 10W 12D 13L from 35 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.54 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 19D 11L in their last 70 games (1.99 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 20D 22L in their last 70 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.17 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Antwerp in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 60%, Antwerp 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Union St. Gilloise) and 40% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Antwerp in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 49% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 40% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 5-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 0.77 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Antwerp attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 60%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.