Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antwerp stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Antwerp have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 60% of Antwerp's (from Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Antwerp 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Antwerp — a Union St. Gilloise win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antwerp trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 59% versus Antwerp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 60% | Antwerp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.210 / defence 0.846 | Antwerp attack 0.816 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Antwerp bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Union St. Gilloise's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 | Draw 3.15 | Antwerp 5.48. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.41 / Antwerp 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.210 / def 0.846 | Antwerp attack 0.816 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Antwerp xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 5 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 50% chance of winning, Antwerp a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.21x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
50%
2.00
32%
3.15
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.18
0.77
Antwerp xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.77 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 40W 19D 11L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 28W 20D 22L from 70 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 35 home games (23W 7D 5L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 10W 12D 13L from their last 35 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.54 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 19D 11L in their last 70 games (1.99 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 28W 20D 22L in their last 70 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.17 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Antwerp in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Antwerp.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Antwerp have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Antwerp 0-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 60%, Antwerp 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Union St. Gilloise) and 40% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Antwerp in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 49% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 40% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 74% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 5-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 0.77 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Antwerp attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 60%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.