Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Union St. Gilloise) versus 1.80 (Anderlecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise have won 0, Anderlecht 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 64% and Anderlecht 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 64% | Anderlecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.26 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.009 / defence 0.878 | Anderlecht attack 1.312 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.118. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Union St. Gilloise games / 34 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 36% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 37%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Anderlecht 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 70% | Anderlecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 36% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.26 / Anderlecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.009 / def 0.878 | Anderlecht attack 1.312 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Anderlecht xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 36% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Record (2 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.75
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
Anderlecht xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.29 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 26W 11D 7L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht's form line: 25W 12D 7L from 44 games, 1.98 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.02 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 9W 8D 4L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.75 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Anderlecht in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 11D 7L in their last 44 games (2.02 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 25W 12D 7L in their last 44 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.19 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union St. Gilloise at 71%, Anderlecht at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Union St. Gilloise and 67% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 81% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 67% of Anderlecht's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 6, as Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.26 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Anderlecht attack 1.31 / defence 0.78, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 36% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 37%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 64%, Anderlecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.02 PPG, Anderlecht 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.