Standard Liege 0-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Standard Liege at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Kortrijk travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liege have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Standard Liege are significantly better at Stade Maurice Dufrasne than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.30 PPG, Kortrijk 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Standard Liege, 0 for Kortrijk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Standard Liege winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Kortrijk trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 49% versus Kortrijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 46% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 2.08 xG and Kortrijk 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.087 / defence 0.900 | Kortrijk attack 1.019 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.291. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Standard Liege games / 58 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 57% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 20%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Kortrijk 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 40% | Kortrijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 57% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Standard Liege 2.08 / Kortrijk 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.087 / def 0.900 | Kortrijk attack 1.019 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Kortrijk xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Standard Liege 0 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk part of?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 57% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Standard Liege and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
Record (3 meetings): Standard Liege 2W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (1.09) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.34
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
3.26
1.18
Kortrijk xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
39.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.18 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 14D 24L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 0.98 PPG from 57 outings (14W 14D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.25 PPG, Kortrijk on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 9W 7D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.18 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 14D 24L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 14W 14D 29L in their last 57 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Kortrijk away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.21 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 50%, Kortrijk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Standard Liege) and 54% (Kortrijk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Standard Liege's games and 64% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Standard Liege's recent games and 54% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Standard Liege 0-2 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 2.08 xG and Kortrijk 1.18 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Kortrijk outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against Kortrijk attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 57% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 20%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 46%, Kortrijk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.25 PPG, Kortrijk 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.