Standard Liege 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kortrijk travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liege have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Standard Liege are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Standard Liege, 1 for Kortrijk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kortrijk trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus Kortrijk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 48% | Kortrijk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.800 / defence 0.787 | Kortrijk attack 0.613 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.207. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Standard Liege's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Standard Liege games / 54 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 60% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 10%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.67 | Draw 3.45 | Kortrijk 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (60%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | Kortrijk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 60% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 38% | xG Standard Liege 1.64 / Kortrijk 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.800 / def 0.787 | Kortrijk attack 0.613 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Kortrijk xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk part of?
Standard Liege vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 60% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 10% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Standard Liege and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
Record (5 meetings): Standard Liege 2W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.80) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
60%
1.66
29%
3.40
10%
9.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.22
0.58
Kortrijk xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
9.79
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
2%
50.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.58 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Standard Liege come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 16D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 0.76 PPG from 54 outings (10W 11D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Standard Liege's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 0.50 points per game from 26 outings (3W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.91 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 10W 11D 33L in their last 54 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Kortrijk away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.58 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Standard Liege's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Kortrijk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Standard Liege) and 65% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 27% of games; Kortrijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 54% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Standard Liege's recent games and 65% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.58 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.80 / defence 0.79 against Kortrijk attack 0.61 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 60% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 10%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 48%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kortrijk's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Standard Liege arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.