Standard Liege 3-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Charleroi travel to Maurice Dufrasnestadion to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 2W 4D 4L at Maurice Dufrasnestadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.00 PPG, Charleroi 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Standard Liege, 2 for Charleroi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 35% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Standard Liege 33% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.32 xG and Charleroi 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.889 / defence 1.080 | Charleroi attack 1.134 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.085. Data: 42 Standard Liege games / 42 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 35%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Charleroi 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Standard Liege 1.32 / Charleroi 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.889 / def 1.080 | Charleroi attack 1.134 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Charleroi xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 3 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 35% chance of winning, Charleroi a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Record (6 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.30
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.65
1.33
Charleroi xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.33 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 18D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 21W 13D 18L from 52 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.15 PPG, Charleroi on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.38 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Charleroi in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 42%, Charleroi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Standard Liege) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 35% of games; Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 58% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Standard Liege's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Charleroi 3-1 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.32 xG and Charleroi 1.33 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Charleroi attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 35%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 33%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.15 PPG, Charleroi 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.