Standard Liege 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Charleroi travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Standard Liege, 0 for Charleroi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 48% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.13 xG and Charleroi 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.715 / defence 0.791 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.047. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Standard Liege's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Standard Liege games / 40 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 40% | Draw 39% | Charleroi 21%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.50 | Draw 2.56 | Charleroi 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 30% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 40% | Draw 39% | Charleroi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Standard Liege 1.13 / Charleroi 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.715 / def 0.791 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Charleroi xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 40% chance of winning, Charleroi a 21% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Standard Liege 0W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
40%
2.50
39%
2.58
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.90
0.77
Charleroi xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.77 for Charleroi, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 17D 18L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.09 PPG, Charleroi on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (8W 10D 5L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.07 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.48 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 39%, Charleroi 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Standard Liege) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 39% of games; Charleroi in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 39% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Standard Liege's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Charleroi 2-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.13 xG and Charleroi 0.77 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.71 / defence 0.79 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 40% | Draw 39% | Charleroi 21%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 48%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.09 PPG, Charleroi 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.