Standard Liege 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Charleroi travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liege 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Standard Liege, 0 for Charleroi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 52% versus Charleroi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 50% | Charleroi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.45 xG and Charleroi 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.922 / defence 0.786 | Charleroi attack 0.671 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.286. Standard Liege's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Standard Liege games / 50 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 53% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 15%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.89 | Draw 3.03 | Charleroi 6.67. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 50% | Charleroi 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 53% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Standard Liege 1.45 / Charleroi 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.922 / def 0.786 | Charleroi attack 0.671 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Charleroi xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 53% chance of winning, Charleroi a 15% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Standard Liege 0W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
53%
1.89
33%
3.07
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.13
0.68
Charleroi xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
3%
29.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.68 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 14D 18L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 18W 11D 21L from 50 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.36 PPG, Charleroi on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.26 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.62 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Standard Liege) and 54% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi in 33%; Charleroi in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 54% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Standard Liege's recent games and 54% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liege's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege and Charleroi finished level at 0-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.45 xG and Charleroi 0.68 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.92 / defence 0.79 against Charleroi attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 53% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 15%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 50%, Charleroi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.36 PPG, Charleroi 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.