Standard Liege 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Standard Liege take on Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Standard Liege welcome Antwerp to Stade Maurice Dufrasne. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Standard Liege are significantly better at Stade Maurice Dufrasne than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Antwerp's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Standard Liege's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Standard Liege, 2 for Antwerp and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–6 with Antwerp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 52% versus Antwerp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 49% | Antwerp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.02 xG and Antwerp 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.680 / defence 0.808 | Antwerp attack 0.912 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.212. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Standard Liege games / 56 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 28%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Antwerp 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 50% | Antwerp 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Standard Liege 1.02 / Antwerp 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.680 / def 0.808 | Antwerp attack 0.912 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Antwerp xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Antwerp kick off?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Standard Liege vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Antwerp part of?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 35% chance of winning, Antwerp a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Standard Liege and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Record (3 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Antwerp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.68) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
37%
2.71
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.91
0.89
Antwerp xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.89 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 20W 18D 23L from 61 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 33W 16D 12L across 61 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 12W 9D 9L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 11W 9D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.77 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 20W 18D 23L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 33W 16D 12L in their last 61 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Antwerp away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.50 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Antwerp in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Antwerp have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-5 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 47%, Antwerp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Standard Liege) and 43% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antwerp in 37%; Standard Liege have failed to score in 27% of games; Antwerp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 40% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Standard Liege's recent games and 43% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Antwerp tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.02 xG and Antwerp 0.89 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.68 / defence 0.81 against Antwerp attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 37% | Antwerp 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 49%, Antwerp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.