St. Truiden 2-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as St. Truiden welcome Zulte Waregem to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for St. Truiden, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 3–0 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus Zulte Waregem 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 47% | Zulte Waregem 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.20 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.735 / defence 0.909 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.912 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.382. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 St. Truiden games / 51 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 37% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 35%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Zulte Waregem 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | Zulte Waregem 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 37% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG St. Truiden 1.20 / Zulte Waregem 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.735 / def 0.909 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.912 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden 2 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 37% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.73x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.57
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.35
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.15 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 21W 11D 19L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 11W 12D 28L from 51 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 7D 14L from 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.27 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 21W 11D 19L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 11W 12D 28L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Zulte Waregem away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.28 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.76 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 64%, Zulte Waregem 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (St. Truiden) and 56% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of St. Truiden's matches and 56% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 2-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.20 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 37% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 35%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 47%, Zulte Waregem 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.