St. Truiden 1-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 38%, yet in-form St. Truiden provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as St. Truiden welcome Zulte Waregem to Stayen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.07 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.131 / defence 1.097 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.797 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 0.815 / away 1.488. Data: 2 St. Truiden games / 2 Zulte Waregem games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 27% | Draw 35% | Zulte Waregem 38%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Zulte Waregem 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St. Truiden (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 27% | Draw 35% | Zulte Waregem 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG St. Truiden 1.07 / Zulte Waregem 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.131 / def 1.097 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.797 / def 1.162 | league avg home 0.815 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Zulte Waregem xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden 1 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 27% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.13x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
27%
3.75
35%
2.82
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.37
1.30
Zulte Waregem xG
3.75
27%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.30 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 100%.
Defensively: St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have St. Truiden or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of St. Truiden's games and 100% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St. Truiden's recent games and 50% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat St. Truiden 1-3 at Stayen, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.07 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.30 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 27% | Draw 35% | Zulte Waregem 38%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 50%, Zulte Waregem 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Zulte Waregem winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St. Truiden shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.