St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates St. Truiden at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as St. Truiden welcome Zulte Waregem to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of St. Truiden's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of St. Truiden: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with St. Truiden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St. Truiden and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 52% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 57% | Zulte Waregem 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.36 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.904 / defence 1.044 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.904 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Data: 38 St. Truiden games / 38 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 34%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
St. Truiden dominate the H2H record, yet Zulte Waregem are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | Zulte Waregem 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG St. Truiden 1.36 / Zulte Waregem 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.904 / def 1.044 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.904 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Zulte Waregem xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 18:15 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 40% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): St. Truiden 5W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.90x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.79
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.59
1.23
Zulte Waregem xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.23 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 21W 6D 17L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 16W 11D 17L from 44 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.57 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (11W 3D 7L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.43 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 21W 6D 17L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Zulte Waregem away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.71 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 48%, Zulte Waregem 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (St. Truiden) and 57% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 62% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of St. Truiden's matches and 57% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.