St. Truiden 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Kortrijk travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this season.
Kortrijk — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St. Truiden are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 1, Kortrijk 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus Kortrijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.48 xG and Kortrijk 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.751 / defence 0.970 | Kortrijk attack 1.126 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.324. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 St. Truiden games / 57 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 37% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 36%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Kortrijk 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 40% | Kortrijk 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 37% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG St. Truiden 1.48 / Kortrijk 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.751 / def 0.970 | Kortrijk attack 1.126 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Kortrijk xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk part of?
St. Truiden vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 37% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both St. Truiden and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.75) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.65
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.93
1.45
Kortrijk xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.45 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 23W 14D 20L from 57 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 28L across 57 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 10W 6D 12L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.21 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Kortrijk away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.29 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St. Truiden
3
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Kortrijk?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 61%, Kortrijk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (St. Truiden) and 54% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of St. Truiden's games and 64% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of St. Truiden's matches and 54% of Kortrijk's.
Do St. Truiden and Kortrijk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.48 xG and Kortrijk 1.45 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Kortrijk attack 1.13 / defence 1.27, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 37% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 36%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Kortrijk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.