St. Truiden 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 4W 2D 4L at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.20 PPG versus Charleroi's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for St. Truiden, 1 for Charleroi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus Charleroi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Charleroi 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.12 xG and Charleroi 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.866 / defence 1.019 | Charleroi attack 0.958 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.513. Data: 45 St. Truiden games / 45 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 45%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 2.22. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | Charleroi 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG St. Truiden 1.12 / Charleroi 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.866 / def 1.019 | Charleroi attack 0.958 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 29% chance of winning, Charleroi a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.87x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
29%
3.47
26%
3.86
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.60
1.48
Charleroi xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.48 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 18W 10D 17L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 20W 6D 19L from 45 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.42 PPG, Charleroi on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 11W 2D 9L from 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 6D 19L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.27 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.59 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charleroi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 68%, Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for St. Truiden and 73% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of St. Truiden's games and 50% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of St. Truiden's matches and 73% of Charleroi's.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Charleroi 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.12 xG and Charleroi 1.48 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 29% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 45%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Charleroi 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.42 PPG, Charleroi 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.