St. Truiden 0-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and AS Eupen meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. St. Truiden's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of AS Eupen's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for St. Truiden, 1 for AS Eupen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 51% versus AS Eupen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 46% | AS Eupen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.58 xG and AS Eupen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.952 / defence 1.061 | AS Eupen attack 0.819 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.423. Data: 43 St. Truiden games / 43 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 45% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | AS Eupen 3.33. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 60% | AS Eupen 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 45% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG St. Truiden 1.58 / AS Eupen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.952 / def 1.061 | AS Eupen attack 0.819 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.24
AS Eupen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kick off?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
St. Truiden 0 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen part of?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 45% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both St. Truiden and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
Record (2 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.95x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.82x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.04
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.82
1.24
AS Eupen xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.24 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 18W 10D 15L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 10W 8D 25L from 43 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.05 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 10D 15L in their last 43 games (1.49 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 25L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or AS Eupen away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.33 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.90 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
1
Draws
3
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, AS Eupen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 71%, AS Eupen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for St. Truiden and 62% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of St. Truiden's games and 48% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of St. Truiden's matches and 62% of AS Eupen's.
Do St. Truiden and AS Eupen tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Eupen defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat St. Truiden 0-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.58 xG and AS Eupen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against AS Eupen attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 45% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 30%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual AS Eupen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 46%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.