Oostende 3-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oostende vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Diaz Arena plays host to Oostende versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oostende have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Diaz Arena, Oostende have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Oostende against 0.80 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oostende have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Kortrijk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oostende lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Kortrijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Oostende — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 51% versus Kortrijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 57% | Kortrijk 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 1.43 xG and Kortrijk 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.855 / defence 1.255 | Kortrijk attack 0.937 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.423. Data: 49 Oostende games / 49 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 33% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 43%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oostende 70% | Kortrijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 33% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Oostende 1.43 / Kortrijk 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.855 / def 1.255 | Kortrijk attack 0.937 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Kortrijk xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Kortrijk kick off?
Oostende vs Kortrijk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Kortrijk?
Oostende 3 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Oostende vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Kortrijk part of?
Oostende vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 33% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Oostende and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Kortrijk?
Record (2 meetings): Oostende 0W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 2W.
What form are Oostende and Kortrijk in?
Oostende (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oostende's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.94x) against Oostende's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
33%
3.04
24%
4.23
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Oostende xG
Total xG
3.10
1.67
Kortrijk xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Oostende and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Oostende and 1.67 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oostende's recent record stands at 14W 9D 26L from 49 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 24L across 49 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Oostende against 1.00 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oostende have managed 8W 3D 13L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oostende are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.14 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 14W 9D 26L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 24L in their last 49 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Kortrijk away?
Oostende's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 1.12 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oostende have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oostende
1
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Kortrijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 1, Kortrijk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Kortrijk 2-2 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 62%, Kortrijk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Oostende) and 46% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Oostende's games and 58% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oostende vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Oostende's matches and 46% of Kortrijk's.
Do Oostende and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oostende cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oostende beat Kortrijk 3-1 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 1.43 xG and Kortrijk 1.67 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Oostende beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Kortrijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 33% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 43%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Oostende win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 57%, Kortrijk 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oostende 1.04 PPG, Kortrijk 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oostende win broke the near-deadlock. Oostende (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.