OH Leuven 0-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as OH Leuven welcome Union St. Gilloise to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OH Leuven have posted 6W 1D 3L at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: OH Leuven 1.70 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for OH Leuven, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 1–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 65% versus Union St. Gilloise 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 63% | Union St. Gilloise 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.75 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 1.056 / defence 1.042 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.142 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.408. Data: 43 OH Leuven games / 43 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 40% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 37%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Union St. Gilloise 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 40% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG OH Leuven 1.75 / Union St. Gilloise 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 1.056 / def 1.042 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.142 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Union St. Gilloise xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
OH Leuven 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 40% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (1.06) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
40%
2.49
23%
4.43
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
3.42
1.68
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.68 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 15W 13D 15L from 43 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 27W 7D 9L across 43 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 10W 4D 7L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 15W 3D 3L across 21 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OH Leuven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 7D 9L in their last 43 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.62 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.29 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OH Leuven's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OH Leuven
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 62%, Union St. Gilloise 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for OH Leuven and 62% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 48% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of OH Leuven's matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 0-3 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.75 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.68 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.14 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 40% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 37%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 63%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.