OH Leuven vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Kortrijk meet at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OH Leuven have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Den Dreef this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — OH Leuven have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Kortrijk in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for OH Leuven, 3 for Kortrijk and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Kortrijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 46% versus Kortrijk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 44% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.68 xG and Kortrijk 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.828 / defence 0.991 | Kortrijk attack 0.518 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 OH Leuven games / 8 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 62% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 14%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 7.14. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates OH Leuven as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 30% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 62% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG OH Leuven 1.68 / Kortrijk 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.828 / def 0.991 | Kortrijk attack 0.518 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Kortrijk xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Kortrijk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Den Dreef.
Where is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk part of?
OH Leuven vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 62% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both OH Leuven and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
Record (8 meetings): OH Leuven 3W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 3W.
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.83) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.52x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.23
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.35
0.67
Kortrijk xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
3%
37.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.67 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, OH Leuven have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 10D 20L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 21W 4D 14L from 39 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kortrijk are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OH Leuven have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.49 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 4D 14L in their last 39 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.00 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 3-0 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
2
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Kortrijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Kortrijk 2-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 37%, Kortrijk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (OH Leuven) and 53% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 42% of games; Kortrijk in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 42% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of OH Leuven's recent games and 53% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Kortrijk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.