OH Leuven 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion to face OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.40 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Genk — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 71% and Genk 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 67% | Genk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.59 xG and Genk 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 1.125 / defence 1.175 | Genk attack 0.932 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.474. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 OH Leuven games / 24 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 37% | Draw 24% | Genk 38%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Genk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 60% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 37% | Draw 24% | Genk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG OH Leuven 1.59 / Genk 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 1.125 / def 1.175 | Genk attack 0.932 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Genk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Genk xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Genk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Genk kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
OH Leuven 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Genk part of?
OH Leuven vs Genk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 37% chance of winning, Genk a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both OH Leuven and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OH Leuven's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.93x) against OH Leuven's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.11
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
3.21
1.61
Genk xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.61 for Genk, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 8D 8L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.46 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
OH Leuven's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.96 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Genk in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Genk have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Genk away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.55 PPG; Genk away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
1
Draws
7
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Genk have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 64%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for OH Leuven and 64% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of OH Leuven's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of OH Leuven's matches and 64% of Genk's.
Do OH Leuven and Genk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Genk in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Genk 2-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.59 xG and Genk 1.61 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against Genk attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 37% | Draw 24% | Genk 38%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 67%, Genk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.33 PPG, Genk 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.