OH Leuven 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's home record at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 60% versus Charleroi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 59% | Charleroi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.65 xG and Charleroi 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.985 / defence 0.896 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.235. Data: 59 OH Leuven games / 58 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 15%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 6.67. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG OH Leuven 1.65 / Charleroi 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.985 / def 0.896 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Charleroi xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 60% chance of winning, Charleroi a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.98x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.62x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.01
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.34
0.69
Charleroi xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
34.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.69 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 15D 25L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (20W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.24 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (7W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.41 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 59%, Charleroi 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (OH Leuven) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%; Charleroi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 48% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of OH Leuven's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as OH Leuven and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.65 xG and Charleroi 0.69 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 15%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 59%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.19 PPG, Charleroi 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.