OH Leuven 0-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as OH Leuven welcome Beerschot VA to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, OH Leuven have gone 1W 5D 3L from 9 outings — a 0.89 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beerschot VA — All Games: 0W 1D 8L from 9 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.11 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 2.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.44 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 3.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
OH Leuven carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.78 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.89 vs 0.11. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
OH Leuven trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 56% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 78% and Beerschot VA 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 44% | Beerschot VA 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 2.01 xG and Beerschot VA 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.956 / defence 1.165 | Beerschot VA attack 0.927 / defence 1.789. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.538. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.789 — this is suppressing OH Leuven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 OH Leuven games / 9 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 46% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 32%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Beerschot VA 3.12. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OH Leuven as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 100% | Beerschot VA 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 46% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG OH Leuven 2.01 / Beerschot VA 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.956 / def 1.165 | Beerschot VA attack 0.927 / def 1.789 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Beerschot VA xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA kick off?
OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA part of?
OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 46% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 32% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both OH Leuven and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OH Leuven and Beerschot VA in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-5D-3L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.44 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus OH Leuven's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
46%
2.16
21%
4.68
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
3.67
1.66
Beerschot VA xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.66 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 1W 5D 3L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 8L across 9 games — 0.11 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours OH Leuven by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beerschot VA heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OH Leuven are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 0.78 scored and 2.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 1W 5D 3L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 (0.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Beerschot VA away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.25 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
OH Leuven's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
OH Leuven
2
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 1, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2024, when OH Leuven 2-0 Beerschot VA.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OH Leuven at 100%, Beerschot VA at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for OH Leuven and 100% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of OH Leuven's games and 100% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of OH Leuven's matches and 100% of Beerschot VA's.
Do OH Leuven and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as OH Leuven and Beerschot VA drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 2.01 xG and Beerschot VA 1.66 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Beerschot VA attack 0.93 / defence 1.79, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 46% | Draw 21% | Beerschot VA 32%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 44%, Beerschot VA 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, OH Leuven arrived the stronger side — 0.89 PPG against 0.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.