KVC Westerlo 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KVC Westerlo at 45%, yet in-form OH Leuven provide a compelling counter-argument — this KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
KVC Westerlo welcome OH Leuven to Het Kuipje in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 5). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
KVC Westerlo — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KVC Westerlo's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — KVC Westerlo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, OH Leuven stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
OH Leuven away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. OH Leuven's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of KVC Westerlo's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
KVC Westerlo in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KVC Westerlo 62% versus OH Leuven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 65% | OH Leuven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 1.58 xG and OH Leuven 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 0.952 / defence 1.207 | OH Leuven attack 0.883 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. KVC Westerlo's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OH Leuven's projected output up. Data: built from KVC Westerlo's last 64 games and OH Leuven's last 64.
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 45% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 30%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 2.23 | Draw 4.04 | OH Leuven 3.29. KVC Westerlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KVC Westerlo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OH Leuven (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KVC Westerlo's last 10 home games and OH Leuven's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KVC Westerlo 50% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 45% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG KVC Westerlo 1.58 / OH Leuven 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 0.952 / def 1.207 | OH Leuven attack 0.883 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
OH Leuven xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven?
KVC Westerlo 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven part of?
KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 5) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 45% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KVC Westerlo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus KVC Westerlo's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KVC Westerlo's last 64 games and OH Leuven's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.04
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
2.83
1.25
OH Leuven xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.25 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KVC Westerlo come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 20D 28L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 1.24 PPG from 68 outings (22W 18D 28L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: KVC Westerlo on 1.18 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
KVC Westerlo's home form reads 11W 7D 15L across their last 33 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 9D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.40 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
KVC Westerlo (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KVC Westerlo
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 20W 20D 28L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 22W 18D 28L in their last 68 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or OH Leuven away?
KVC Westerlo's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.21 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KVC Westerlo's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KVC Westerlo
5
Draws
0
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KVC Westerlo have won 5, OH Leuven have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: KVC Westerlo 3-3 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven?
KVC Westerlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KVC Westerlo 61%, OH Leuven 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for KVC Westerlo and 58% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OH Leuven in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KVC Westerlo vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of KVC Westerlo's games and 61% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of KVC Westerlo's matches and 58% of OH Leuven's.
Do KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of KVC Westerlo's recent matches and 76% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Het Kuipje, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, as KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.58 xG and OH Leuven 1.25 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against OH Leuven attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 45% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 30%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 65%, OH Leuven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.18 PPG, OH Leuven 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.