Kortrijk 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host St. Truiden at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 3W 4D 3L at Guldensporenstadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporenstadion than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kortrijk at 0.60 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Kortrijk have won 1, St. Truiden 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with St. Truiden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 57% versus St. Truiden 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 57% | St. Truiden 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.37 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.966 / defence 1.070 | St. Truiden attack 0.945 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.281. Data: 35 Kortrijk games / 35 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 39% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 35%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 39% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Kortrijk 1.37 / St. Truiden 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.966 / def 1.070 | St. Truiden attack 0.945 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.29
St. Truiden xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden part of?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 39% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kortrijk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.85
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
St. Truiden xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.29 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 7D 20L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden's form line: 12W 9D 14L from 35 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 5W 5D 7L from 17 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.09 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
3
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, St. Truiden have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 47%, St. Truiden 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kortrijk) and 41% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 41% of games; St. Truiden in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 47% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kortrijk's recent games and 41% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.37 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against St. Truiden attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 39% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 35%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 57%, St. Truiden 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.