Kortrijk 1-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Gent travel to Guldensporenstadion to take on Kortrijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.43 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gent stand at 2W 1D 3L from 6 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.17 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.43 PPG (Kortrijk) versus 1.17 (Gent). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kortrijk register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Gent in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Gent trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 50% versus Gent 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 50% | Gent 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.39 xG and Gent 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.962 / defence 1.181 | Gent attack 0.663 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.509. Gent bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Kortrijk games / 6 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 42% | Draw 26% | Gent 32%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Gent 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 67% | Gent 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 42% | Draw 26% | Gent 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Kortrijk 1.39 / Gent 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.962 / def 1.181 | Gent attack 0.663 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gent xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Gent kick off?
Kortrijk vs Gent kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Gent?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Gent.
Where is Kortrijk vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Gent part of?
Kortrijk vs Gent is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 42% chance of winning, Gent a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kortrijk and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kortrijk and Gent in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Gent (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.96) and Gent's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.79
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.57
1.18
Gent xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.18 for Gent, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gent's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.17 PPG, Gent on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 2.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gent in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
Gent
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Gent in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Gent have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Kortrijk or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gent in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Gent runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Gent won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Gent specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
1
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Gent?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Gent have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Gent 1-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Gent 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kortrijk) and 67% (Gent). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 67% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kortrijk's matches and 67% of Gent's.
Do Kortrijk and Gent tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gent in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Gent 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Gent 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.39 xG and Gent 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gent landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Gent attack 0.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 42% | Draw 26% | Gent 32%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 50%, Gent 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gent's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.17 PPG, Gent 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Gent managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.