Kortrijk 1-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldensporenstadion plays host to Kortrijk versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 1W 2D 7L at Guldensporenstadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Genk (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 2.50 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Genk, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Genk winning.
It is worth noting that Genk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 55% versus Genk 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 47% | Genk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.79 xG and Genk 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.674 / defence 1.308 | Genk attack 1.318 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.416. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genk's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Kortrijk games / 51 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 10% | Draw 16% | Genk 74%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 10.00 | Draw 6.25 | Genk 1.35. The model has a clear lean to Genk (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Genk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 10% | Draw 16% | Genk 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 50% | xG Kortrijk 0.79 / Genk 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.674 / def 1.308 | Genk attack 1.318 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Genk (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Genk xG
50%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Genk kick off?
Kortrijk vs Genk kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Genk?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Genk.
Where is Kortrijk vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Genk part of?
Kortrijk vs Genk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 10% chance of winning, Genk a 74% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kortrijk and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are Kortrijk and Genk in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Genk (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.67) and Genk's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.32x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
10%
9.81
16%
6.19
74%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
3.23
2.44
Genk xG
9.81
10%
Home win
6.19
16%
Draw
1.36
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
9%
11.48
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
1%
112.70
33%
3.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Kortrijk and 2.44 for Genk, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 12W 13D 26L from 51 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 14L across 51 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 6W 6D 14L from 26 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 12W 4D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kortrijk are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Genk in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 26L in their last 51 games (0.96 PPG), while Genk have gone 30W 7D 14L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.92 PPG; Genk away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Genk?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Genk 3-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Genk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kortrijk) and 62% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 58% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kortrijk's recent games and 62% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Genk tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Genk in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Genk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Genk 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.79 xG and Genk 2.44 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.67 / defence 1.31 against Genk attack 1.32 / defence 0.71, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 10% | Draw 16% | Genk 74%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 47%, Genk 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.