Gent 2-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Gent welcome Kortrijk to GHELAMCO-arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at GHELAMCO-arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 2.00 PPG versus Kortrijk's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gent, 1 for Kortrijk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Kortrijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kortrijk trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 45% versus Kortrijk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gent 45% | Kortrijk 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.35 xG and Kortrijk 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.160 / defence 0.919 | Kortrijk attack 0.769 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.575. Data: 21 Gent games / 20 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 42% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 31%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Kortrijk 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gent 60% | Kortrijk 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 42% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Gent 1.35 / Kortrijk 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.160 / def 0.919 | Kortrijk attack 0.769 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Gent (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kortrijk xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Kortrijk kick off?
Gent vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 January 2022 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Kortrijk?
Gent 2 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Gent vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Kortrijk part of?
Gent vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 42% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gent and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): Gent 0W | Draws 0 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Gent and Kortrijk in?
Gent (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.71
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Gent xG
Total xG
2.47
1.11
Kortrijk xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gent and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gent and 1.11 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gent come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 4D 6L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.70 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gent's home form reads 7W 1D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Gent are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.30 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Kortrijk in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 8W 7D 5L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Kortrijk away?
Gent's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.20 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Gent or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Gent won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Gent
1
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Kortrijk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Gent 1-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Kortrijk?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 60%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gent) and 30% (Kortrijk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gent's games and 50% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Gent's recent games and 30% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and Kortrijk finished level at 2-2 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.35 xG and Kortrijk 1.11 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Kortrijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 42% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 31%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 45%, Kortrijk 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.70 PPG, Kortrijk 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.