Genk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genk at 2.10 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 59% versus Union St. Gilloise 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 62% | Union St. Gilloise 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.89 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.237 / defence 0.692 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.300 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.291. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Genk's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Genk games / 62 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 54% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 23%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 4.35. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 50% | Union St. Gilloise 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 54% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Genk 1.89 / Union St. Gilloise 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.237 / def 0.692 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.300 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Genk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Union St. Gilloise xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 54% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.24x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.27
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Genk xG
Total xG
3.05
1.16
Union St. Gilloise xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
29.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Genk and 1.16 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Genk have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 39W 12D 17L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 44W 11D 13L from 68 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.90 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.24 PPG from 34 outings (24W 4D 6L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 23W 6D 5L from 34 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.06 scored and 0.97 conceded. Genk's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 39W 12D 17L in their last 68 games (1.90 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 44W 11D 13L in their last 68 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Genk's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.24 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Genk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 53%, Union St. Gilloise 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Genk and 65% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Genk's games and 59% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Genk's matches and 65% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Genk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.89 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.16 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.24 / defence 0.69 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 54% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 23%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Union St. Gilloise win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 62%, Union St. Gilloise 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.90 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.