Genk 0-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Genk at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 39. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Genk. A 0.70 PPG lead over Antwerp (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Genk, 2 for Antwerp and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genk — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Antwerp — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus Antwerp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 58% | Antwerp 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.18 xG and Antwerp 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.044 / defence 0.942 | Antwerp attack 0.769 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Genk games / 60 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 30%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Antwerp 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genk 40% | Antwerp 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 39 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Genk 1.18 / Antwerp 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.044 / def 0.942 | Antwerp attack 0.769 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Genk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Antwerp xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Antwerp kick off?
Genk vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Genk 0 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Genk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Antwerp part of?
Genk vs Antwerp is a Conference League Group - 39 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 41% chance of winning, Antwerp a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Genk and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
Record (8 meetings): Genk 3W | Draws 3 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are Genk and Antwerp in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.04) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.77x) against Genk's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.40
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Genk xG
Total xG
2.13
0.96
Antwerp xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Genk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Genk and 0.96 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 39W 19D 20L from 78 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 32L across 78 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 22W 8D 8L from 38 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 10W 13D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.24 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 78 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 39W 19D 20L in their last 78 games (1.74 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 25W 21D 32L in their last 78 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Antwerp away?
Genk's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.95 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Antwerp have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Antwerp 4-4 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Antwerp?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 50%, Antwerp 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Genk) and 32% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Antwerp in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Genk's recent matches and 45% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Genk's recent games and 32% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Antwerp tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Antwerp finished level at 0-0 at Cegeka Arena, Conference League Group - 39, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.18 xG and Antwerp 0.96 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Antwerp landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Antwerp attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 41% | Draw 29% | Antwerp 30%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, Antwerp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.