Club Brugge KV 2-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Club Brugge KV. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge KV stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Club Brugge KV's home record at Jan Breydelstadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Club Brugge KV are significantly better at Jan Breydelstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Club Brugge KV 1.40 PPG, Charleroi 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Club Brugge KV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charleroi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Club Brugge KV have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Charleroi have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Club Brugge KV winning.
The historical record gives Club Brugge KV a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Club Brugge KV trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge KV 57% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge KV 57% | Charleroi 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge KV 1.85 xG and Charleroi 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge KV attack 1.178 / defence 0.916 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.348. Data: 55 Club Brugge KV games / 54 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 54% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 23%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge KV 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Charleroi 4.35. Club Brugge KV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Club Brugge KV 60% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 54% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Club Brugge KV 1.85 / Charleroi 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge KV attack 1.178 / def 0.916 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Club Brugge KV xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Charleroi xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi kick off?
Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Club Brugge KV 2 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi part of?
Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge KV a 54% chance of winning, Charleroi a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Club Brugge KV and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): Club Brugge KV 3W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi in?
Club Brugge KV (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Club Brugge KV's attack at 1.18x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Club Brugge KV's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.34
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Club Brugge KV xG
Total xG
3.00
1.15
Charleroi xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
27.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.15 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Club Brugge KV come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 16D 9L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.45 PPG from 60 outings (25W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Club Brugge KV's home form reads 18W 10D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Club Brugge KV are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.52 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge KV
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Club Brugge KV and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Club Brugge KV have gone 35W 16D 9L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 25W 12D 23L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge KV at home or Charleroi away?
Club Brugge KV's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge KV at home: 2.13 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Club Brugge KV or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Charleroi in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Club Brugge KV have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Club Brugge KV's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Club Brugge KV
2
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Club Brugge KV have won 8, Charleroi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge KV and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge KV and Charleroi?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge KV 57%, Charleroi 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Club Brugge KV and 73% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge KV home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Club Brugge KV play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Club Brugge KV's games and 57% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Club Brugge KV vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Club Brugge KV's matches and 73% of Charleroi's.
Do Club Brugge KV and Charleroi tend to score early?
Club Brugge KV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge KV and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 22, as Club Brugge KV and Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 1.85 xG and Charleroi 1.15 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 54% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 23%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 57%, Charleroi 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.