Charleroi 0-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Standard Liege 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Standard Liege trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Standard Liege 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 68% | Standard Liege 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.77 xG and Standard Liege 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.106 / defence 1.188 | Standard Liege attack 0.983 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.494. Data: 44 Charleroi games / 44 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 22% | Standard Liege 38%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Standard Liege 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | Standard Liege 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 22% | Standard Liege 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Charleroi 1.77 / Standard Liege 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.106 / def 1.188 | Standard Liege attack 0.983 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Standard Liege xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Standard Liege (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.11) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.53
22%
4.50
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.52
1.74
Standard Liege xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.47
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.74 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 20W 6D 18L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 20L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.50 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 6D 18L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.48 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 48%, Standard Liege 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Charleroi) and 52% (Standard Liege). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charleroi's recent matches and 52% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Charleroi's matches and 52% of Standard Liege's.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.77 xG and Standard Liege 1.74 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Standard Liege attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 22% | Standard Liege 38%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 68%, Standard Liege 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Standard Liege's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Standard Liege 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.