Charleroi 0-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.40 PPG, Standard Liege 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Standard Liege trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 41% versus Standard Liege 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 59% | Standard Liege 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.05 xG and Standard Liege 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.778 / defence 1.105 | Standard Liege attack 0.726 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.352. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Charleroi games / 29 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 34% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Standard Liege 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Standard Liege 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 34% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Charleroi 1.05 / Standard Liege 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.778 / def 1.105 | Standard Liege attack 0.726 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Standard Liege xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 0 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 34% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.78) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.38
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.14
1.08
Standard Liege xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.08 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 13W 7D 9L from 29 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 13L across 29 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 5W 4D 5L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.03 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 13W 7D 9L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.36 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 29%, Standard Liege 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Charleroi) and 50% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Charleroi's recent matches and 57% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Charleroi's recent games and 50% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Standard Liege finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.05 xG and Standard Liege 1.08 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Standard Liege landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Standard Liege attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 34% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 36%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 59%, Standard Liege 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Standard Liege's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.