Charleroi 1-2 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Standard Liege at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Conference League Group - 33 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Standard Liege are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Charleroi, 2 for Standard Liege and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 54% versus Standard Liege 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 46% | Standard Liege 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.15 xG and Standard Liege 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.994 / defence 1.156 | Standard Liege attack 0.845 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 60 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Standard Liege 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Standard Liege 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 33 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.15 / Standard Liege 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.994 / def 1.156 | Standard Liege attack 0.845 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Standard Liege xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 2 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Conference League Group - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 33% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Record (8 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 3 | Standard Liege 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.99) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.66
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.44
1.29
Standard Liege xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.29 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 27W 17D 28L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 27L across 72 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.36 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 16W 9D 10L from 35 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 11W 9D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.81 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 27W 17D 28L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 22W 23D 27L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.63 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Standard Liege 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 37% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Standard Liege in 31%; Standard Liege in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 29% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 37% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Charleroi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.15 xG and Standard Liege 1.29 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Standard Liege attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 33% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 40%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Standard Liege 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.36 PPG, Standard Liege 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.