Charleroi 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 1.30 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Charleroi, 1 for St. Truiden and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 67% | St. Truiden 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.31 xG and St. Truiden 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.917 / defence 0.863 | St. Truiden attack 0.954 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.304. Data: 59 Charleroi games / 60 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 28%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | St. Truiden 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 50% | St. Truiden 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.31 / St. Truiden 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.917 / def 0.863 | St. Truiden attack 0.954 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.07
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs St. Truiden kick off?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Charleroi vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs St. Truiden part of?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.15
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.38
1.07
St. Truiden xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.07 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 11D 24L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (24W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.43 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charleroi's home form reads 13W 5D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.57 points per game from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.47 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Charleroi or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 43%, St. Truiden 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charleroi) and 33% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; St. Truiden in 43%; Charleroi have failed to score in 30% of games; St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Charleroi's recent matches and 40% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Charleroi's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.31 xG and St. Truiden 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against St. Truiden attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 67%, St. Truiden 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, St. Truiden 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.