Charleroi 1-3 Oostende – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Oostende fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oostende make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Oostende's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Oostende have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Oostende have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Charleroi, 1.20 for Oostende — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Charleroi 2W, Oostende 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Oostende goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 42% versus Oostende 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 67% | Oostende 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.67 xG and Oostende 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.105 / defence 0.937 | Oostende attack 0.845 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.086. Data: 36 Charleroi games / 36 Oostende games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | Oostende 19%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Oostende 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Oostende 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Oostende | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | Oostende 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Charleroi 1.67 / Oostende 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.105 / def 0.937 | Oostende attack 0.845 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Oostende xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Oostende kick off?
Charleroi vs Oostende kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Oostende?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Oostende.
Where is Charleroi vs Oostende being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Oostende part of?
Charleroi vs Oostende is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Oostende?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 57% chance of winning, Oostende a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Oostende?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charleroi and Oostende will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Oostende have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Oostende?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | Oostende 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Oostende in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Oostende (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.10) and Oostende's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oostende's attack (0.84x) against Charleroi's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.14
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.53
0.86
Oostende xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
4%
27.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Oostende?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Oostende expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.86 for Oostende, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Oostende?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi's recent record stands at 16W 6D 14L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oostende, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 18L across 36 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Oostende, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.11 for Oostende. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oostende's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Oostende are on 1.00 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Oostende
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Oostende in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Oostende have gone 11W 7D 18L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Oostende away?
Charleroi's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.56 PPG; Oostende away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Oostende been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Oostende in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 0-3 on 24 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oostende — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charleroi
1
Draws
1
Oostende
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Oostende?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Oostende have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Oostende last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Oostende 0-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Oostende?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Oostende see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Charleroi) and 28% (Oostende) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 33% (Oostende).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 33% of games; Oostende in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Oostende away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Oostende?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charleroi's recent matches and 28% of Oostende's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Oostende usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charleroi's recent games and 33% of Oostende's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Oostende tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oostende in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oostende cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oostende beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.67 xG and Oostende 0.86 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oostende outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Oostende attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 57% | Draw 24% | Oostende 19%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Oostende win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 67%, Oostende 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Oostende's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Oostende 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oostende win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oostende (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.