Charleroi 2-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charleroi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kortrijk (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Kortrijk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charleroi, 0 for Kortrijk and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 67% | Kortrijk 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.61 xG and Kortrijk 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.964 / defence 1.125 | Kortrijk attack 0.862 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.503. Data: 46 Charleroi games / 46 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 41% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 35%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Kortrijk 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | Kortrijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 41% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Charleroi 1.61 / Kortrijk 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.964 / def 1.125 | Kortrijk attack 0.862 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Kortrijk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Kortrijk kick off?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Charleroi 2 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is Charleroi vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Kortrijk part of?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 41% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charleroi and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.96) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.86x) against Charleroi's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.18
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.07
1.46
Kortrijk xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.46 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 20W 6D 20L from 46 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 23L across 46 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 9W 4D 10L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 6D 20L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Kortrijk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.35 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Charleroi have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
3
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, Kortrijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2024, when Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 44%, Kortrijk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Charleroi) and 44% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Charleroi's recent matches and 56% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Charleroi's recent games and 44% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Kortrijk finished level at 2-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.61 xG and Kortrijk 1.46 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Kortrijk attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 41% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 35%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 67%, Kortrijk 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.