Charleroi 2-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48%, yet in-form Genk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 3. Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 39% versus Genk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 61% | Genk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.55 xG and Genk 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.017 / defence 0.911 | Genk attack 0.926 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.308. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 25% | Genk 27%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Genk 3.70. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 20% | Genk 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 3 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 25% | Genk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Charleroi 1.55 / Genk 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.017 / def 0.911 | Genk attack 0.926 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Genk xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 2 - 2 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Conference League Play-off Group - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, Genk a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Genk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.02) and Genk's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.93x) against Charleroi's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.94
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.65
1.10
Genk xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.10 for Genk, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 15W 9D 12L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 17W 6D 13L from 36 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.58 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Genk have gone 6W 3D 9L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.97 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Genk have gone 17W 6D 13L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; Genk away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Genk in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 28%, Genk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charleroi) and 56% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Charleroi's recent matches and 61% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charleroi's recent games and 56% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Genk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 3, as Charleroi and Genk drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.55 xG and Genk 1.10 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genk outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Genk attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 25% | Genk 27%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 61%, Genk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Genk 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.