Charleroi 3-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Charleroi welcome Dender to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dender — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dender have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dender's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dender in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Charleroi, 2 for Dender and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 4–1 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Dender in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Dender 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Dender 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.46 xG and Dender 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.920 / defence 0.968 | Dender attack 0.860 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.127. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 35 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | Dender 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Dender 4.76. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 60% | Dender 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | Dender 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.46 / Dender 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.920 / def 0.968 | Dender attack 0.860 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dender xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Dender kick off?
Charleroi vs Dender kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Charleroi 3 - 1 Dender.
Where is Charleroi vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Dender part of?
Charleroi vs Dender is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 47% chance of winning, Dender a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
Record (4 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | Dender 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Dender in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Dender (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
47%
2.15
32%
3.12
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.40
0.94
Dender xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.94 for Dender, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 17W 13D 15L from 45 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 20L across 45 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.42 PPG, Dender on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.20 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Dender in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 17W 13D 15L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Dender have gone 11W 14D 20L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Dender away?
Charleroi's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.77 PPG; Dender away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Dender specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Dender have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Dender?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 50%, Dender 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Charleroi) and 68% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dender in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Charleroi's recent games and 68% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Dender tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dender in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Dender 3-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.46 xG and Dender 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Dender attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | Dender 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 42%, Dender 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.42 PPG, Dender 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.