Charleroi 0-1 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Club Brugge KV travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 4D 0L from 7 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.86 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.14 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 1W 2D 0L this season (3 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Club Brugge KV — All Games: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Club Brugge KV have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Club Brugge KV's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.86 PPG, Club Brugge KV 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Club Brugge KV in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 71% and Club Brugge KV 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 57% | Club Brugge KV 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.81 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.125 / defence 1.020 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.952 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.525. Club Brugge KV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Charleroi games / 7 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 46% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 32%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Club Brugge KV 3.12. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 67% | Club Brugge KV 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 46% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Charleroi 1.81 / Club Brugge KV 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.125 / def 1.020 | Club Brugge KV attack 0.952 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Club Brugge KV xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 46% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Charleroi and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-0L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.12) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.40
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.29
1.48
Club Brugge KV xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
5%
19.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.48 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 4D 0L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.86 PPG, Club Brugge KV on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charleroi's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.14 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Club Brugge KV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 3W 4D 0L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.67 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Club Brugge KV have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
2
Draws
8
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Charleroi 1-2 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 67%, Club Brugge KV 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Charleroi) and 67% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Club Brugge KV in 67%; Charleroi have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Club Brugge KV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Charleroi's recent matches and 33% of Club Brugge KV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Charleroi's recent games and 67% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Club Brugge KV defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.81 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.48 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Club Brugge KV attack 0.95 / defence 1.32, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 46% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 32%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Club Brugge KV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 57%, Club Brugge KV 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.86 PPG, Club Brugge KV 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.