Charleroi 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Charleroi haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Antwerp have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antwerp haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–4 with Antwerp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Antwerp 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | Antwerp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.18 xG and Antwerp 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.989 / defence 1.090 | Antwerp attack 1.081 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 0.931. Data: 30 Charleroi games / 30 Antwerp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 32%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Antwerp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Antwerp 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Charleroi 1.18 / Antwerp 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.989 / def 1.090 | Antwerp attack 1.081 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.242 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Antwerp xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 36% chance of winning, Antwerp a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.99x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.08x) against Charleroi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
36%
2.75
32%
3.17
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.28
1.10
Antwerp xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.10 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 9D 15L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. Charleroi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.42 PPG from 36 outings (14W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. Antwerp haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Charleroi against 1.42 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.50 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Pre-Season
Antwerp
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.61 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Antwerp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 67%, Antwerp 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charleroi) and 56% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 33%; Antwerp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Charleroi's recent matches and 39% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charleroi's recent games and 56% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.18 xG and Antwerp 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Antwerp attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 32%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, Antwerp 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.25 PPG, Antwerp 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.