Beerschot VA 0-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise meet at Olympisch Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.81 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.823 / defence 1.112 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.031 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 0.847 / away 1.435. Data: 2 Beerschot VA games / 2 Union St. Gilloise games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 15% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 54%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 6.67 | Draw 3.23 | Union St. Gilloise 1.85. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 15% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Beerschot VA 0.81 / Union St. Gilloise 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.823 / def 1.112 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.031 / def 1.157 | league avg home 0.847 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Union St. Gilloise xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Beerschot VA 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 15% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 54% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.82x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.03x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
15%
6.76
31%
3.20
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.45
1.65
Union St. Gilloise xG
6.76
15%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
3%
35.07
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.65 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Beerschot VA 0-4 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Beerschot VA 0-3 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.81 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.65 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Beerschot VA fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 15% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 54%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 50%, Union St. Gilloise 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Beerschot VA managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.