Beerschot VA 2-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Beerschot VA welcome Kortrijk to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympisch Stadion, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Kortrijk's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Beerschot VA's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beerschot VA, 0 for Kortrijk and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 44% versus Kortrijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 56% | Kortrijk 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.13 xG and Kortrijk 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.908 / defence 1.494 | Kortrijk attack 0.858 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.430. Data: 25 Beerschot VA games / 26 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 54%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Kortrijk 1.85. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 20% | Kortrijk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Beerschot VA 1.13 / Kortrijk 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.908 / def 1.494 | Kortrijk attack 0.858 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Kortrijk xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Beerschot VA 2 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk part of?
Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 23% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beerschot VA and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Kortrijk?
Record (1 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Kortrijk in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
23%
4.30
23%
4.37
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.96
1.83
Kortrijk xG
4.30
23%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
16%
6.24
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
4%
26.82
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.83 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA come into this having played 25 games, going 3W 4D 18L for 0.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kortrijk sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Beerschot VA's home form reads 3W 1D 9L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Kortrijk have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.16 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 3W 4D 18L in their last 25 games (0.52 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.77 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kortrijk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
4
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 2, Kortrijk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Beerschot VA 15% BTTS, Kortrijk 54%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beerschot VA) and 31% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 31%; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 69% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 54% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 31% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Kortrijk 2-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.13 xG and Kortrijk 1.83 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.91 / defence 1.49 against Kortrijk attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 23% | Kortrijk 54%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Beerschot VA win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 56%, Kortrijk 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.52. Form was overturned, with Beerschot VA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.