Anderlecht 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 January 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 4W 1D 5L at Lotto Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 53% versus Union St. Gilloise 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 54% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.53 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.976 / defence 0.978 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.461 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.347. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Anderlecht games / 52 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 31% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 47%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Union St. Gilloise 2.13. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 40% | Union St. Gilloise 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 31% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Anderlecht 1.53 / Union St. Gilloise 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.976 / def 0.978 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.461 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Union St. Gilloise xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 31% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 0.98x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
31%
3.23
22%
4.54
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.46
1.93
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
5%
22.11
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.93 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 27W 14D 16L from 57 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 37W 9D 11L across 57 games — 2.11 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 15W 7D 6L from 28 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 20W 4D 4L across 28 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.07 scored and 0.93 conceded. Anderlecht's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 9D 11L in their last 57 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.86 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 54%, Union St. Gilloise 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Anderlecht) and 68% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 54% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Anderlecht's matches and 68% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 1-3 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.53 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.93 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.46 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 31% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 47%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 54%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.