Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Group - 39 sees St. Truiden travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Anderlecht — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 3W 3D 4L at Lotto Park — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Anderlecht at 0.80 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Anderlecht have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while St. Truiden have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with St. Truiden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Anderlecht and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
St. Truiden trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 43% versus St. Truiden 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 49% | St. Truiden 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.37 xG and St. Truiden 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.144 / defence 0.915 | St. Truiden attack 1.120 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Anderlecht games / 60 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 37%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | St. Truiden 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 39 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Anderlecht 1.37 / St. Truiden 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.144 / def 0.915 | St. Truiden attack 1.120 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.35
St. Truiden xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kick off?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Anderlecht 3 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden part of?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden is a Championship Group - 39 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Anderlecht and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Record (9 meetings): Anderlecht 7W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.14x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.89
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.72
1.35
St. Truiden xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.35 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 29W 16D 29L from 74 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 27L across 74 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.39 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 17W 8D 12L from 37 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 12W 7D 18L across 37 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.45 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 64%.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 29W 16D 29L in their last 74 games (1.39 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 31W 16D 27L in their last 74 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or St. Truiden away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.59 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Anderlecht
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 49%, St. Truiden 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Anderlecht) and 57% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; St. Truiden in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Anderlecht's games and 62% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Anderlecht's matches and 57% of St. Truiden's.
Do Anderlecht and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 3-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Group - 39, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.37 xG and St. Truiden 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 37%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 49%, St. Truiden 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.39 PPG, St. Truiden 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.