Zulte Waregem 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Lommel United at Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Lommel United — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 1.70 (Lommel United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 1 for Lommel United and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lommel United trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 64% versus Lommel United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | Lommel United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.16 xG and Lommel United 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.783 / defence 1.064 | Lommel United attack 1.098 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.377. Zulte Waregem's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 52 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 48%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 2.08. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.16 / Lommel United 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.783 / def 1.064 | Lommel United attack 1.098 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Lommel United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 27% chance of winning, Lommel United a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 1 | Lommel United 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
27%
3.64
25%
4.05
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.77
1.61
Lommel United xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
18.21
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.61 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 15D 27L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 31W 10D 21L from 62 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 0.84 PPG from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 14W 6D 11L from 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.68 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Lommel United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 31W 10D 21L in their last 62 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.84 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Lommel United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Lommel United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 64%, Lommel United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Zulte Waregem and 71% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Zulte Waregem's games and 58% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 71% of Lommel United's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Lommel United tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, as Zulte Waregem and Lommel United drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.16 xG and Lommel United 1.61 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Lommel United attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 48%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Lommel United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.